News & Events

Retired Gen. McCaffrey's take on current North Korea situation

Kim Jong Un was badly hurt by enhanced sanctions. North Korea was the mouse that roared. Trump bellicose language has him uneasy. 

North Korea an impoverished cruel nation with a giant third world military. The Chinese do not want a war on the Korean Peninsula that would likely go nuclear as Kim Jung Un Forces come apart. 

Kim Jong Un can pause his development. He has 40-100 nukes that will work, IRBM missiles adequate for regional attack, and has tested two ICBM’s. Not yet a credible threat to US mainland. They need 5 years. In ten years they will have submarine nuclear missile capability. 

Un will never for any reason turn over his nuke weapons in a verifiable manner. His will accept stasis to reduce the economic pain. 

This is the third generation of PROVOKE. NEGOTIATE. GET REWARD. PROVOKE AGAIN. 

The summit in my view is risky but will provide a lull in dangerous escalation rhetoric. Very impressive performance by KJU. Trump risk taking likely to pay off in short run. 

The major danger is MISCALCULATION by Un to provoke a reward. We will never initiate a conventional first strike on North Korea. I believe we would respond with massive air and sea power to a North Korea deliberate provocation. 


Barry