North Korea has totally got the upper hand in the coming 24 months they will need to perfect a credible but modest ICBM strike force of 20 missiles carrying thermonuclear devices.
They will achieve their goal.
We will not carry out a “bloody nose” strike. 100% likely to result in all out conventional artillery strike on Seoul. Probably also result in North Korean subs all putting out to sea for coastal interdiction.
If we do strike it would be overwhelming air and sea attack using conventional smart munitions to try to knock out their missile sites. We would get 90% of them in 72 hours. BUT NOT ALL.
Therefore we won’t do that either.
The North-South dialog is the same trick for 50 years. PROVOKE. ENGAGE. REWARD. THEN PROVOKE AGAIN.
There is ZERO support in South Korea or Japan or Australia for Preventive War .....which actually is a logical Military option. It would be likely to result in all out protracted conflict.
The US and South Korean Armed Forces would utterly smash North Korea in six months of battle. At the end the conflict would go nuclear.
We are bluffing. The North Koreans will NEVER give up their nuclear program.
Our strategy needs to be risk mitigation and isolation. Very dangerous option for the American people. Don’t see a feasible alternative option
Trump may single handedly provoke a war by miscalculation. He has no idea what he is doing. Taunting a nuclear armed despot who sits on an unstable throne is madness.
Our allies are appalled. The Russians are delighted. The Chinese will be inclined to help by restraining the public rhetoric from North Korea and Trump.
At the end game North Korea will be a dangerous nuclear power. KJU will use his nukes for leverage on the South NOT just as deterrence.